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Md Delwar Hossain
Apr 28, 2022
In General Discussion
Whether using current-period indicators, lagging one period or leading one period, the conclusions are similar. That said, on a Special Database quarterly basis, the U.S. film industry is non-cyclical. However, we still cannot believe that the "lipstick effect" exists: the so-called "lipstick effect" refers to the fact that during the economic downturn, consumers will spend more in entertainment fields such as movies, that is, "countercyclical"; we are based on quarterly Special Database data. For statistical analysis, only "aperiodic", not "anti-periodic" can be derived. If investors just want to look for an industry that is "uncorrelated" or "very weakly" to macroeconomic indicators. They have plenty of options and don't have to rely on the film industry. Sorry, there is really no "lipstick effect" in the Special Database media and entertainment industry! Quarterly data on the U.S. game industry is hard to find, and common third-party databases are not consistent and authoritative. Therefore, we can only use quarterly revenue figures for four large public gaming companies: Activision Blizzard, EA, Take-Two, and Zynga; of these, Activision Blizzard and EA have significantly larger revenues. It must be admitted that the use of data for the four Special Database companies above is not rigorous, as they all have substantial revenue sources outside the United States, and differences in accounting policies must also be considered. Still, this is the most reliable proxy for quarterly data we can imagine. After using the above proxy variables, we concluded Special Database that, calculated on a quarterly basis, there is no linear relationship between the operating income of the US game industry and macroeconomic indicators such as GDP and disposable income, and statistical significance is almost non-existent. This is similar to what we concluded for the US film industry, with one Special Database exception - the social average hourly wage. Our statistical analysis shows that there is a linear relationship between the quarterly income of the US game industry and the average hourly wage of the society, and the P-Value is only 0.02.
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Md Delwar Hossain

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